potinsnews.com March 25, 2017

Oil up on petrol draw, but market bloated

10 February 2017, 01:57 | Chelsea Hernandez

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US crude fell 1.17 percent to $51.56 a barrel by 10:58 a.m. HK/SIN on Wednesday, while global benchmark Brent lost 0.84 percent to $54.59.

At the same time, the EIA's latest Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO) report released Tuesday, raises its forecast on USA crude production and prices for this year.

Oil prices jumped on Thursday after industry data revealed an unexpected draw in gasoline inventories, suggesting a favorable demand for the petroleum product.

The US distillate fuel imports averaged 209,000 barrels per day last week, according to the report. Shale explorers are benefiting from prices that rose above US$50 a barrel after Opec and 11 other nations agreed to trim production in an effort to ease a global supply glut. "The breakdown below $52 on WTI could spark a further selloff lower towards $51".

The EIA reported USA stock piles surged 13.5 million barrels last week, roughly in line with yesterday's industry data from the American Petroleum Institute.

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"The sell-off since API reported its numbers on Tuesday has been quite substantial and should EIA confirm its analysis, we could see the lower end of the ranges come under serious pressure".

In the fortnight January 17 to February 1, WTI and Brent oil prices rose around 2.5 and 2.7 per cent, respectively, while prices declined by around 0.3 per cent on the MCX in the same time frame. That report emerged late Tuesday and spilled over to tarnish oil prices before the start of trading in NY.

Crude inventories, meanwhile, surged by 13.8 million barrels from the previous week to 508.6 million barrels.

"The draws that we expect will start from a high base", the bank said. "They are serious about higher crude prices and I believe they are ready to pull the trigger on additional action if it's needed". "U.S. shale is coming back, and it's coming back strong".

OPEC and other big exporters have agreed to trim output by nearly 1.8 million bpd during the first half of this year in order to prop up prices and rebalance the market. In a note to clients, analysts at Société Générale's commodities team wrote: "Decline rates for United States shale wells are still steep, but initial production levels, production profiles, and ultimate recovery volumes have increased".

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